Trump and the GOP lose a key edge with voters: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur digs into our newest poll to underscore the challenge facing Republicans at the polls this fall. Plus, Natasha Korecki and Matt Dixon examine Elon Musk’s under-the-radar midterm role (so far).

— Adam Wollner

Trump and the GOP lose a key edge with voters

Analysis by Sahil Kapur

Ever since he first descended down a golden escalator in 2015, President Donald Trump and his party have possessed a powerful political asset: Voters have generally trusted them on the economy.

But that appears to be shifting heading into the November midterm elections.Our new NBC News poll released over the weekend found that 39% registered voters trust Democrats more to handle the economy, compared to 38% who trusted Republicans more — a 1-point difference.

While voters have been split relatively evenly on the issue between the two parties in recent NBC News polling, Republicans had long held an edge on the question. Republicans had a 15-point advantage in October 2018 — one month before Democrats gained a net of 41 seats to win control of the House — and a 19-point advantage in September 2022.

The only other time during the Trump era Democrats led on the question of which party voters trust more on the economy was in December 2017.

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Similarly, the latest NBC News poll showed that 55% of registered voters said that Trump’s policies have “hurt” the economy, while 26% say they’ve “helped.” That net margin of negative 29 points is 16 points worse than Trump performed on the issue in a March NBC News poll.

And in September 2018, voters said 41%-26% that Trump’s policies had helped the economy, rather than hurt.

Inflation and the cost of living topped the list of voters’ most important issues facing the country in the new poll (28%), while another 9% said jobs and the economy.

The issue of the economy has powered Trump in his own presidential bids. Most recently, in 2024, 53% of voters said they trusted Trump more to handle the economy, according to exit polls, while 46% chose Kamala Harris. That year, voters who rated the economy as their No. 1 issue preferred Trump over Harris by an eye-popping 81%-18%.

But two years later, voters have soured on Trump and the GOP amid the ongoing Iran war and stubbornly high prices at the gas pump and grocery store.

It’s deprived the party of an asset that has tended to shield them even when the chips were down, heading into an election where they are trying to hang on to control of both chambers of Congress.

🗳️ More from the NBC News poll:

• Voters recoil at candidates who back data center construction, by Scott Bland
• Fewer Democrats plan to vote by mail in the midterms, by Jane C. Timm

Elon Musk is flying under the radar in the Texas Senate race. Republicans want to keep it that way.

By Natasha Korecki and Matt Dixon

The last time Elon Musk sank money into an election, he played a starring role in the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race. He donned a cheesehead, offered $1 million checks to voters, and he and affiliated groups poured at least $20 million into the contest.

In the end, the conservative candidate lost by 10 points in what was widely viewed as a rebuke of Musk and the Trump administration.

Now, the richest person in the world is back boosting Republican candidates in critical midterm elections, including a bruising Senate race in Texas where Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing Democrat James Talarico, who had initially far outraised him and remains close in polling.

But that financial tide is quickly turning — with Musk’s help.

Unlike in Wisconsin, Musk has so far stayed out of the spotlight in Texas, even though he lives in the state, has based his companies Tesla and SpaceX there, and employs about 20,000 people. He hasn’t announced plans for any in-person events.

And privately, Republicans say they want Musk to keep his distance. In interviews, more than half a dozen GOP strategists involved in the Texas Senate race say they hope Musk follows his 2024 model of electoral involvement, which led to a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress. Then, Musk spent more than $250 million to boost Donald Trump and his party.

Republicans believe Democrats will attempt to turn Musk into a boogeyman if he takes on a higher-profile role in Texas or other battlegrounds.

Read more →

📊 Survey says: A new NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll on the Texas Senate race showed James Talarico at 46% and Ken Paxton at 43%, within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Another 8% of potential voters were still up for grabs.

Meanwhile, in the Texas governor’s race, the poll found GOP Gov. Greg Abbott at 48% and Democrat Gina Hinojosa at 41%.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Lauren Zola.

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