A single contestant on the ongoing 50th season of “Survivor” has 90% odds of winning on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi.
Contestant Aubry Bracco, who has appeared on multiple previous seasons of the CBS reality TV show, is listed with 90% odds of winning on both prediction markets, and has been leading the pack since January.
The closest Ms. Bracco came to not being the favorite was on Kalshi at 2 a.m. EDT on Jan. 12, when her odds dropped to 52%, though her odds jumped back up to over 77% just hours later.
Over $10 million has been spent on predictions for “Survivor 50” on Kalshi, with almost $350,000 spent on Polymarket. The show is airing now but was taped last year.
So far, no specific allegations have been made against contestants or crew on “Survivor 50” regarding insider trading. All 24 players and their families had to sign nondisclosure agreements regarding the results.
A Kalshi spokesperson told Axios in February that “we continuously monitor all related markets and have run checks on contestants,” to prevent the possibility of insider trading on these predictions, which are dealing with an event that has already concluded but not yet aired on TV.
Kalshi has also previously fined people for insider trading on other bets, such as an editor for the MrBeast YouTube channel who made prediction wagers on a contest held on the channel despite knowing the results, according to the New York Times.
