You know how you aren’t supposed to talk about a no-hitter while it’s going on? That’s kind of how it feels to talk about a starting pitcher who is both pitching well and is currently healthy. We’ve had so many pitchers go down with injuries (including a couple more big names on Wednesday, of course) or supposed aces struggling this season that it feels risky to even mention when a pitcher is thriving.
But I’m going to do it. I’m going to take the risk, because it needs to be said: Jacob Misiorowski is ascending to the highest tiers of the position.
This might not strike you as a particularly bold take. Misiorowski has some of the most overwhelmingly dominant stuff we’ve ever seen from a starting pitcher, and he entered Wednesday’s start against the Padres with a 2.45 ERA and absolutely massive strikeout numbers. For many of you, saying this in mid-May might be saying it too late. But let’s not forget that Misiorowski was very much a question mark just two months ago, coming off a rookie season where he put up a 4.63 ERA and was largely not all that useful for Fantasy in the second half.
But it’s hard to argue against him as a true ace at this point. He shut down the Padres for seven innings Wednesday, his third straight start without allowing a run, and the fourth time in nine starts he has gone at least six innings – something he did just three times in 14 starts last season. And after serious issues throwing strikes for much of his rookie season, Misiorowski seems to have turned a corner, with two or fewer walks in four straight starts and six of nine overall. And, obviously, the strikeouts are plentiful, with 10 more in this start to give him four starts with double-digits on the season – the same number Paul Skenes has for his career after Tuesday’s gem.
I’m not saying Misiorowski is a better pitcher than Skenes, though I don’t think it’s an overreaction to say he’s a better strikeout pitcher than Skenes. But I do think we’re at the point where it doesn’t really make any sense to have performance concerns about Misiorowski. He probably won’t sustain a 45%-plus whiff rate on his four-seamer, but … he might! It is genuinely one of the best four-seamers we’ve ever seen from a starting pitcher. And he’s showing a basically unprecedented ability to sustain that heat late into games, as his last three pitches of the game tonight were 102, 101.9, and 103.2 mph, giving him 12 pitches of at least 101 mph for his career in the sixth inning or later, the second-most of any pitcher in the pitch-tracking era behind Justin Verlander.
And the rest of the arsenal is pretty good, too! Misiorowski’s slider isn’t really a huge bat-misser; it’s more like a monster, contact-suppressing cutter, and it generated nine batted balls Wednesday with just a 79.1 mph average exit velocity. The curveball operates more like a slider for Misiorowski; only the first two pitches are so good that he hardly ever needs it.
It’s fair to wonder how sustainable this all is, mostly from a health standpoint. Nobody has ever sustained the kind of velocity Misiorowski is routinely generating while staying healthy. But here’s the thing: He’s healthy right now. Every pitcher has a fairly high baseline level of injury risk, and I don’t think it’s especially fair to assume Misiorowski’s is significantly higher than other pitchers who are also presumably pitching at max effort, just because his max effort produces higher readings. Yeah, he’s an injury risk. So is every pitcher, as you may be aware.
I’m moving Misiorowski up to the SP6 spot in my rankings this week. In trades, I think the only pitcher I would be willing to trade Misiorowski straight up for is Skenes, but I’m not sure I’d be willing to give up any of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cristopher Sanchez, Chris Sale or Jacob deGrom for him, either, if that makes sense. I’m buying the performance with Misiorowski, but there’s still the open question of how this is all going to look 150 innings in. The rest of those guys might not be as good as Misiorowski right now, but they have shown they can be dominant for a full season. It’s really the only question Misiorowski has yet to answer.
