Joaquin Buckley Plummets From -300 Favorite to Underdog at UFC Edmonton

The biggest move on Saturday’s card at Rogers Place is the main event. Joaquin Buckley opened as a -300 favorite over Mike Malott. By Tuesday night, Buckley was +114 at DraftKings and Malott was the favorite at every book. That is a swing of roughly 400 points of moneyline, and it is the most dramatic reversal I’ve seen on a card this year.

The Main Event Flip

Early money flipped the price quickly. Offshore books opened Buckley as a sizable favorite, but Malott now holds the edge at most shops. This week’s numbers sit in a tight range. Malott is about -125 to -135, and Buckley is about +105 to +115. The total is 3.5 rounds, with the over at about -130 to -135.

The reaction here suggests bettors see Malott as the better fighter on the night. Some of that is also home-country money, since Malott is Canadian and the card is in Edmonton. Buckley is explosive and dangerous, but the market no longer trusts him to be a -300 favorite against a durable, well-rounded opponent.

Co-Main and Main Card

Erin Blanchfield versus Jasmine Jasudavicius is the co-main event and could determine the next challenger for Natalia Silva. Blanchfield’s price is roughly -310 to -340 depending on the book, with Jasudavicius at about +250 to +262. That is a modest shift toward the underdog, so I would not read much into it. It looks like normal pushback against a heavy favorite.

Several other main card fights have the market behind one side:

● Cristian Perez is about -305 to -345 over Kyle Nelson, whose price is +245 to +295.sports.

● Kyle Daukaus is about -200 over Marc-André Barriault, with Barriault at +169 to +180.

● Mandel Nallo is about -278 to -285 over Nate Landwehr, with Landwehr at +230 to +235.

● Louis Jourdain is a -176 favorite over Timmy Cuamba at +149.

Prelims and Price Notes

The prelims have big favorites too. Nick Galanti is listed around -610 to -655 over Julien Leblanc at +460 to +485. Jhonata Diniz is about -220 to -240 over Tanner Boser at +185 to +205. Kaitlyn Cerminara is about -270 to -274 over Mackenzie Stiller, who is +227 to +230.