It doesn’t seem as if the weather has turned spring-like yet in some parts of the country even though we are a week-plus into May, which complicates making MLB home run prop picks. A Mets-Rockies game this week was postponed due to snow. Some Midwest and East Coast teams are also playing often in windy conditions. Even tonight, the forecasts around the country aren’t great, although nothing should get rained out. Home runs go up when the temperatures do. It’s not rocket science. That being said, we have a pair of MLB home run picks.
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Last Friday, my MLB betting HR picks were the Braves‘ Ozzie Albies and Rangers‘ Joc Pederson. I’ll say this every week: If I recommend a home run, then obviously Over 1.5 total bases would be a smart and more likely alternative. Albies didn’t go yard at Coors Field, but did have a double. Pederson’s rough season continued last Friday at 0-for-3, but he was a longshot play for a reason
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Top Friday MLB home run picks
Juan Soto, Mets (+249, DraftKings)
The 27-year-old Soto has hit at least 40 homers in back-to-back seasons but has only four this season. Granted, he landed on the injured list for a while and has been limited to 22 games. And it surely would help Soto to see more hittable pitches once All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor is back off the injured list and atop that New York lineup.
Soto did end a five-game homer drought on Wednesday, but that shot almost gets an asterisk because it was at Coors Field. He’s still only batting .174 this month and slugging .391. But he will be playing at hitter-friendly Chase Field in Phoenix on Friday and facing a struggling right-hander in Ryne Nelson, who is 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and seven homers allowed in just 31.1 innings. At home, he’s been even worse: 0-2 with a 14.40 ERA and four homers allowed in three starts spanning 10.0 innings.
You can’t really play Soto against lefties right now as his OPS against them is a paltry .632 with a single homer. Against Nelson, he is 3-for-12 with two homers and a triple.
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Zach Neto, Angels (+590, FanDuel)
I’m assuming you have seen the baseball movies «Major League» and «Bull Durham,» among others. Those show you how baseball guys are more superstitious, it seems, than any other pro athlete. Hall of Famer Wade Boggs, for example, would only eat chicken before every game, earning the nickname «Chicken Man.» Hey, whatever works for you.
One of my favorite stories of this MLB season happened Tuesday when Zach Neto, the Angels’ shortstop, entered the game hitless in 18 straight at-bats to see his average drop 30 points. He hadn’t homered since way back on April 10. So what did Neto do prior to Tuesday vs. the White Sox? Opened some Pokémon cards with future Hall of Famer Mike Trout.
«He texted me [Tuesday morning] about ripping Pokémon cards, and if we found a Charizard card, I was going to hit a home run,» Neto said postgame. And both Neto and Trout went yard. Bring that deck to Toronto for Friday’s opener fellas!
Neto has pretty good power for a not-towering shortstop, having hit 26 bombs last year. He has six in 38 games in 2026. Neto will be facing the nasty Dylan Cease tonight, and he wouldn’t normally be a guy I’d recommend a home run prop against because Cease strikes out and walks so many that oftentimes the ball isn’t put in play. He has only allowed one dinger in 38.1 innings.
But Neto has good limited splits off Cease at 3-for-7 with two homers, good for an OPS of 1.786. That’s fantastic at this price. I certainly wouldn’t play Trout for a homer as he’s 2-for-12 with no extra-base hits and eight strikeouts vs. Cease. Nolan Schanuel is 4-for-8 with a homer and double against Cease, so he’s another possibility.
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