Any time a pitcher throws a no-hitter – the complete-game kind, not a bunch of relievers – I feel some obligation to look at his next start to see how he follows it up. I’m cheating a bit tonight as the Rays visit the Blue Jays, as Dylan Cease took a no-no into the ninth inning before losing it. But he has been on a roll, and Tampa Bay has not. First pitch from Toronto’s Rogers Centre is set for 7:07 p.m. ET.
Rays-Blue Jays MLB same-game parlay
- Toronto money line
- Alt Under 9.5
DraftKings SGP price: +114
In his most recent start, on July 8 in San Francisco, Cease had a no-hitter entering the bottom of the ninth. I was fascinated to see if Manager John Schneider would let him finish the game, as he had thrown a ton of pitches. The point became moot when the Giants‘ Heliot Ramos led off the inning with a line-drive single to center. Cease was pulled immediately, after a career-high 118 pitches, a whopping 81 of which were strikes. It was very cool of Giants fans to give him a standing ovation (pictured).
Cease became the AL Cy Young favorite at some books after that (as well as at Kalshi), and as of Sunday at DraftKings was a co-favorite with the Yankees‘ Cam Schlittler at +130. But Schlittler pitched Sunday and wasn’t great in a loss to the Dodgers, so Cease is nore at +130 with Schlittler at +140.
Now, I might worry about that high pitch count for Cease under normal circumstances, but so much time has passed that I don’t think it’s a concern. Cease also pitched in last Tuesday’s All-Star Game, getting the win for the American League after striking out three in the first inning. He looked plenty sharp to me.
Cease also threw seven shutout innings in his start in Seattle before facing the Giants. I have followed Cease pretty much his entire career, because he was once a touted Cubs prospect, before he was dealt to the White Sox. The 30-year-old, when he’s on, is as good as anyone. But sometimes his focus slips or whatever and it goes poorly. We should know in the top of the first tonight which guy we are getting. If Cease walks the Tampa Bay lead-off batter, that’s not good.
Cease is 1-3 at home in nine starts, though he has a 2.82 ERA at home and has gotten lousy run support. Cease took a no-decision against the visiting Rays on May 13, allowing a run and three hits over seven in a game Toronto would eventually win in extra innings. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Cease at 5.5 innings, 7.3 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.5 earned runs. At DraftKings, he is +140 to win and set at Over/Under 7.5 Ks.
It’s pretty much now or never for the defending AL champions to make a wild card move, sitting seven games under .500 and 4.5 games out of the final spot in the Junior Circuit but with several other teams ahead of them. The schedule gets quite a bit tougher after this series – not that the AL East-leading Rays aren’t good, but they are 21-27 on the road. The model gives Toronto a 12.0% shot at the playoffs, while DK prices the team at +350, which equates to 22.2%. I don’t see it.
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Tampa Bay leads the division by 1.5 games over the Yankees but is a +130 second favorite with New York at +100 and that’s just a ton of Yankees money talking. Do I think the Rays win their first World Series? No … but I would change my tune if they got Tarik Skubal. And with new ownership trying to get a stadium built in Tampa, it sounds like they are willing to spend to acquire help at the Aug. 3 trade deadline. That’s something past Rays owners rarely did. I hope they do for selfish reasons so I can go possibly see a White Sox-Rays playoff game at the Trop.
It’s first-time All-Star Nick Martinez (8-2, 2.65 ERA) on the mound for Tampa Bay. I keep waiting for the 35-year-old journeyman righty to come crashing back to Earth – he lost 14 games last year with a 4.45 ERA with Cincinnati – but he hasn’t yet. He has been one of the most profitable starting pitchers in the majors at +$948 (Tampa Bay is 14-4 in his starts).
Martinez threw a scoreless inning in last week’s All-Star Game and faced the Jays once this season, allowing one run over five in a home win on May 4. Toronto lead-off hitter George Springer is 6-for-17 off him, with two homers. Overall, Martinez is 2-2 with a 5.83 ERA in 29.1 innings vs. the Blue Jays. The model has him at 6.1 innings, 3.6 strikeouts, 5.7 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs.
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The Rays have lost a season-high five straight games, their longest skid since April 2025. Tampa Bay had been one of eight big-league teams to not lose five or more consecutive games this season. It also has lost six in a row away. This sure looks like a potential pitchers’ duel. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
