The unexpected tornadoes in Kansas followed a similar, much-scrutinized event in Michigan last month, when a tornado watch was not issued for southern Michigan and four people died. NWS offices did issue warnings when tornadoes were imminent, however.
Democratic Sens. Gary Peters and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan sent a letter asking NWS Director Ken Graham why a watch was not issued, whether short staffing played a role and how the NWS planned to improve tornado alerts. A spokesperson said the NWS had written a response directly to the senators but did not share it with NBC News.
Although the NWS has taken steps to bolster its ranks since the staffing shortages began, outside meteorologists said effects linger.
“It was something that was not going to be solved overnight, and I still don’t think it is solved, given what we’re seeing with the balloons,” Vagasky said. “I’m concerned with any severe weather day … and the real heart of tornado season is late April and into May.”
Forecasters at the NWS office in Kansas City said they viewed the atmosphere Monday as “volatile” and were aware that storms could grow severe if they formed. But the meteorologists thought storms had only a low chance of developing.
“There was a pretty strong possibility there would be no showers or thunderstorms at all — you’d have a primed environment where nothing ever develops or nothing happens,” said Brad Temeyer, a meteorologist in the Kansas City office. “It was a low-probability event of it occurring, but given that it did occur, it had high impact.”
Temeyer said the agency surveyed the tornado damage Tuesday.
“We didn’t have any significant injuries or fatalities, and in going out and doing the storm surveys today, everybody said they were prepared for potential tornadoes and took shelter once those warnings were in effect,” he said.
Brian LaMarre, a weather consultant who was the meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service’s weather forecasting station in Tampa Bay, Florida, until last April, said he reviewed Monday’s forecasting models before and after the later-than-usual release of weather balloons.
In the morning, none of the models identified a thunderstorm risk for the area southwest of Kansas City, he said. However, once the models incorporated the balloon data, LaMarre said, they began to hint at clusters of thunderstorms. Further study would be needed to understand whether the shift was because of the added balloon data.
“It has to be investigated in terms of researching why did it not happen. Why did it not capture it? What was missed?” he said.
More severe weather could be coming for the Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center expects a risk of severe thunderstorms into the weekend.
For the Kansas City area, Temeyer said, “we want people to remain vigilant.”
