Opinion
Typically, when an American president gives a major speech from the White House, like Donald Trump did last Thursday, much of the world stops to pay attention.
Trump has changed the presidency in many ways. One has been the devaluing of these direct-to-the-nation addresses, to the point that three major American TV channels refused to carry his 27-minute speech live for fear of broadcasting high-powered misinformation.
The president primarily used his address to reiterate old, unsubstantiated claims that China manipulated votes in the 2020 election and complaints of a “deep state” influence on America. The limited documents he posted on the White House website during the speech provided no new information about these claims.
This was Trump’s first major speech since voters began to pay attention to the coming US midterm elections. Under the surface, it appeared to be aimed at the coalition of conservatives he has courted since 2015, offering them familiar enemies and a reminder of the danger to their political project if they let him down in the coming poll.
Trump has many reasons to be worried. His approval rating sits around 40 per cent. About 61 per cent of Americans believes that the economy will get worse in the near future. Consumer confidence is down dramatically from the beginning of Trump’s term. Despite those dismal numbers, Democrats hold only a narrow lead in the polling.
November offers voters their first opportunity to place a meaningful check on Trump’s presidency.
These elections will come to define just how much power Trump is able to wield in the coming two years. At the moment, he faces no meaningful resistance in Washington. The Supreme Court holds a strong conservative majority, and Republicans hold majorities in both the House and the Senate.
However, their majorities are narrow, and history shows that the party of the president will lose seats in the midterm elections with very few exceptions. The Republican Party holds the bare minimum 218 seats needed for a House majority. They have more room to move in the Senate, which is split 53-47.
Given that control of both chambers is up for grabs in November, the stakes are high for Trump, though not for reasons most presidents would consider important.
Instead of building a legislative agenda alongside Congress, Trump has largely governed through executive authority. This means the Republican control of Congress has mattered less because of the little legislation it has produced and more because it has given Trump near-total control over Washington. Congress has not lost its powers. Republicans have simply declined using them against their own leader.
Should the Democrats regain the House, they will take charge of the committees investigating the White House and the broader Trumpworld of businesses, family members and political ties. They could easily open investigations into the partial and stuttered release of the Epstein files, bringing administration officials before committees for sworn testimony. Republicans developed the precedent with a seven-hour deposition of Hunter Biden in February 2024 over similar questions.
Congress can only refer cases to the Department of Justice for criminal prosecution, so there is little legal risk for Trump’s associates at the federal level. But any investigations would bring unwanted media scrutiny and the possibility of state-level investigation (where Trump’s pardon has no authority).
Losing the Senate would be the greatest devastation to Trump and his administration. Trump’s most enduring legacy in the American political system has been his appointment of hundreds of federal judges who hold office for life. Many of his executive actions and other projects have been upheld by these very courts, and his appointees to the federal courts have achieved longstanding conservative goals of ending protections for abortion and preventing states from redrawing electorates on racial grounds.
A Democratic Senate would end Trump’s ability to appoint new judges, or new cabinet secretaries – the most senior figures in government departments.
Ahead of November’s poll, Democratic Senate candidates such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio are polling much closer than expected to their Republican opponents in states that Trump won comfortably in 2024.
By focusing on 2020, Trump’s opening salvo of this election cycle would seem to be a misread of the American public. Trump is asking voters to focus on disproven claims about an election held years ago while those same voters are experiencing a much higher cost of living, especially driven by energy prices as a result of the re-ignited war in the Iran, and an anaemic jobs market.
In 2024, the Republicans won by focusing on affordability and reminding voters of the government’s role in their quality of life. Now, instead of looking at his government and a future he is creating, Trump is asking voters to look backwards, at 2020.
In addition, signs are emerging that Trump’s aggressive immigration policy has scared and alienated many of the Latino voters in key southern states who switched parties to send Trump back to the White House.
It remains to be seen if Trump can pull off another electoral miracle and maintain his majorities in November. His opening argument makes it seem like he has lost his touch at a very inopportune time.
Cory Alpert is a PhD researcher at the University of Melbourne looking at the impact of AI on democracy. He previously served the Biden-Harris administration.
The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up here.
Cory Alpert is a PhD researcher at the University of Melbourne looking at the impact of AI on democracy. He previously served the Biden-Harris Administration for three years.